Under a golden sunset in Memphis in May, an environmental advocate pointed a infrared camera at a flagship datacentre to reveal a global danger hidden from plain view. Free from environmental safeguards, the gas-fired turbines fueling a massive AI computing clusters were spewing invisible fumes into the Tennessee sky.
“It was jaw-dropping,” stated the campaigner, who estimates the facility was releasing more greenhouse gas than a large power plant. “Just an unbelievable amount of pollution.”
Simultaneously, the resulting chatbot was spreading across news feeds, repeating conspiracy theories and producing false claims. Commentators have highlighted AI-created pictures of offensive characters as an example of what natural gas was being burned to produce. “What useful purpose does this serve?”
Others echo this sentiment in asking this question. Scientists are monitoring the AI boom with concern as it contaminates the physical environment with greenhouse gases and the digital world with dangers ranging from false wellness advice to deepfake pornography.
A number of analysts fear datacentres may derail the shift to a clean economy, adding an significant obstacle to the difficult goal of preventing the planet from heating beyond critical thresholds. Others are sanguine about the energy costs, arguing they seem minor not just to polluting industries, but also to the technology’s potential to drive progress.
The Soaring Energy Appetite
When a sustainability researcher conducted analysis for an global energy body, she spent little time worrying about the energy footprint of computers. Transport, agriculture and buildings were among the knotty problems consuming the carbon budget.
But in one European nation, the computational hunger has reached levels that are increasingly alarming. Datacentres guzzle one-fifth of the country’s electricity and are forecast to devour nearly one-third within a few years. The fast growth of these server farms has surpassed the electricity grid's capacity, leading to moratoriums on new grid connections.
“The trajectory of massive, rapid expansion is what is so concerning,” said Daly. “I’m not sure whether this is a special example or a warning sign of what’s to come. But it’s definitely a warning story.”
Globally, datacentres consume approximately one percent of the world’s electricity but may soon consume a greater share. Their percentage of electricity demand in major economies is projected to more than double by 2035. Some demand is being met through contracts to buy green electricity, while some tech firms have made agreements to use nuclear energy.
But for the near future, fossil fuels are set to dominate supply. In some regions, datacentres are concentrated in areas reliant on polluting power generation. In others, political support has framed them as justification for continuing with dirty energy. “The notion that the lower cost of renewables alone will drive decarbonisation – that is insufficient,” said Daly. “Since when there’s a massive driver of energy demand that wants to grow, it will land on these idling power plants.”
Weighing the Carbon Cost of a Interaction
Does employing chatbots to draft emails endanger the planet? Tech companies have hesitated to provide specific figures on their AI energy footprints, but rough calculations hover around a small amount of energy for a simple text query, rising considerably for more complex tasks. One CEO recently claimed a typical AI query uses as little energy as running a lightbulb for a couple of minutes.
These amounts are minimal compared to activities such as air travel, eating meat, or driving a car. Nevertheless, sceptics worry about the massive volume of the technology – with hundreds of millions of weekly users – and the fervour with which companies have integrated it into every aspect of digital life. The rise of background services is expected to add to the ongoing power consumption.
“What I’m worried about is that we’re implementing these systems in such a way that we lack a clear understanding of the energy use,” said a climate lead at an AI company. “The prevailing mindset is on the hypothesis that it’s not a problem – or that if it is a problem it will somehow be solved – instead of getting ahead of it.”
The Possible for Emission Reductions
What if AI could pay off its energy debts by cutting greenhouse gases in other parts of the economy? That is the thesis put forward in several reports, which argued existing AI applications could cut emissions by far more than datacentres produced. Researchers have modelled scenarios in which AI would help to optimize clean power, identify plant-based meats, improve EV components and encourage consumers toward climate-friendly choices.
“AI can hasten the deployment of those clean technologies by basically accelerating their position along the curve of development and use,” said a policy fellow involved in the research.
The estimated emission cuts carry large uncertainties – greater efficiency can lead to more use, and unintended consequences may undercut the gains. But examples already exist. Some companies report AI has helped optimize thermal management in datacentres by a significant percentage. Energy firms say AI has enhanced wind turbine maintenance and performance, increasing operational efficiency. Solar farm operators have reduced downtime by using AI to spot issues.
Because other sectors are so carbon-intensive, researchers say, AI would only need to cut their emissions by a small fraction to cover the carbon cost of its computing. “In the power sector we are already seeing the results,” said one researcher. “But other sectors are not there yet.”
The Other Side: Enabling Fossil Fuels
Environmentalists are not the only ones to have noticed AI’s powerful capabilities. The fossil fuel industry is also a keen implementer. Some former tech employees have expressed concern over their companies' work for oil and gas clients, arguing it enables more emissions than the tech sector produces itself. Partnerships have been announced with major oil companies, with the potential to expand production and streamline exploration.
Industry estimates suggest AI could boost accessible oil and gas reserves and cut project costs. Industry leaders have stated that AI is embedded “in everything” and has increased productivity, leading to more drilling activity. The oil and gas industry also argues AI can cut its operational footprint, for instance by analysing data to spot methane leaks. But critics say there is a disconnect between technological capabilities and corporate actions.
“This is being utilized as an justification to postpone meaningful steps,” said one campaigner. “Observing methane from space is not preventing methane.”
Perhaps even more worrying than the expansion of fossil fuel supply is the effect on consumption. Generative AI has been shown to create highly effective advertisements, and the ease of production slashes the cost of promoting buying. The marketing industry is preparing for AI agents that could handle purchases on a customer’s behalf.
“The common discussion is really focused on this false comparison between the energy used to run the technology and the positive use cases,” said a campaigner. “But it is risky to overlook the negative use cases.”
Appeals for Pause and Regulation
Certain groups are calling to slow down, at least until better rules are in place. International bodies and coalitions of environmental groups have called for a halt on new datacentre development, citing damaging environmental impacts. Some national regulators have imposed conditions, requiring that a large majority of a datacentre’s power must eventually come from new renewable projects.
Some advocates have called to incentivize the industry to do good. A few countries have started to reference AI in climate legislation, obliging governments to promote digitalisation that aids decarbonisation. There have also been suggestions to tax AI to generate resources needed for climate action.
Some campaigners are pushing for upcoming regulations to classify certain high-emission applications of AI as concerning. They also want investors to consider indirect climate impacts when evaluating companies.
In response to concerns, some AI companies have stated they give considerable thought to the responsible deployment of computing power, support sustainability goals, and believe AI will be instrumental in tackling climate change. Other tech firms argue the energy transition is complex and requires a principled manner, with technology playing an important role in helping industries decarbonize.
One researcher concluded that, rather than panic, people should pressure companies to make tools that are frugal by design.
“Perhaps I am too hopeful, but I still believe that AI can have a positive impact in terms of fighting the climate crisis – designing the next generation of batteries, monitoring deforestation, predicting hurricanes,” she said. “Countless good things for which we can be using it – and instead we’re creating digital spaces filled with AI slop while datacentres are getting powered by diesel generators.”
