A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has something to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
